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Federal Election Projections: Oct. 15, 2019

Poll aggregating websites and individual polling firms use various methods to project who will win the 2019 federal election. The following table presents a summary of the projections from a number of Canadian prognosticators from October 15th, 2019 (or earlier):

LISPOP, Canadian Election Watch, Too Close to Call, 338 Canada, CBC, @politikstcan, and @repdonsman456 each use aggregating models to predict the election. While Forum and Mainstreet use their own polling data to model the election.

Liberal projections range from a high of 168 to a low of 125. (Note the 168 projection was projected from October 1st). Conservative support ranges from 127 to 150. All of these projections mean a minority government. Four of the nine projections predict the Liberals will have the most seats and five of nine projections predict the Conservatives will end up with the most seats.

The NDP projections range between a low of 24 and a high of 34 seats. The Bloc projections range between 15 and 36 seats. The Greens are projected between three and seven seats. Finally, the PPC is projected to win zero or one seat. Five of nine projections also predict an independent (presumably Jody Wilson Raybould).

It should be noted while these projections are the predictions published, many of the sites also put confidence intervals suggesting wider ranges of possible outcomes.

This is our first post summarizing election projections. If you know of a projection we missed please post it in the comments below or use the contact form to share it.